Yes, this is real. We can barely believe it either, but this ad for Summer's Eve feminine hygiene products featured in Woman's Day actually advises women to use Summer's Eve to better their chances of getting a promotion. There it is, listed as tip #1 under the copy "Confidence At Work: How To Ask For A Raise," right above "eat a healthy breakfast." Do we even want to know what being fresh "down there" has to do with job performance? We can't believe this was printed, but we'd also like to personally thank whoever was responsible for one of the most outrageous ads we've ever seen. (Via Daily Kos)

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You've probably seen the results of this study-it's been all over the web: personality traits observed in children as young as first graders are a strong predictor of adult behavior.

The study author, Christopher Nave, a doctoral candidate at the University of California, Riverside, says, We remain recognizably the same person. This speaks to the importance of understanding personality because it does follow us wherever we go across time and contexts.

When I first saw this I said to myself, Hey, that's why I still want to take a nap in the afternoons! But, of course, that doesn't hold water since napping isn't a personality trait as much as it is a behavior that is drilled into us by rote and then cruelly stripped away when we need it most. But I'm not bitter.

This prompted me to get out one of my first-grade report cards to see what was written in the teacher's comment section to see how this theory holds up in my case. It said:

Toni is very smart but too bashful for her own good.

(First of all, don't wear yourself out on the details, Mrs. Carningan.) Using the logic of the study, I would picture me now as a scientist holed up in a lonely lab with a few beakers and singularly unattractive assistant with a posture problem. It's pretty ironic that I'm actually now in the business of communications. But here's where it gets complicated. I believe that deep down I am still shy, but I've learned to overcome the outward manifestations of it. Part of that came from conscious efforts but part came from life events that made me grow up quickly and sort of be forced to let go of the luxury, if you will, of staying within myself. So there we go into the whole nature vs. nurture thing.

If my email is any indication, shyness is a personality trait that is very common among the TechRepublic audience. It's what I hear most when I recommend networking as the best tool in a job search. It's simply not easy to do for a good number of people.

But my adult self can attest to the fact that learning to network and communicate effectively are skills that can be learned. It won't feel natural, and it can be downright unpleasant for some, but think of it as any skill you train for and it might be easier.

Here are some quick tips by Roger Elliott, author of a Confidence Course that might prove useful:

• Practice becoming fascinated by other people. Ask them about themselves, and concentrate when they answer you. Remember what they tell you about themselves so you can talk about it later, or on another occasion.
• Great socializers make other people feel comfortable and interesting. How do they do that? By being really, genuinely interested in other people. If you are talking to someone and you feel boring or inferior, ask why that is. Is it really all your fault?
• Practice using fewer personal pronouns when you talk about things. Sentences beginning with I are not only a turn-off for the listener, they also keep the focus of attention on you, which increases shyness. (Note: Of course, part of friendship is giving away things about yourself, but only when you feel it is appropriate to do so.)
• Remember that the way to overcome shyness is to focus elsewhere. Like on imagining what it will be like to really enjoy the social event, on how it will feel to be full of energy, or to be having a great conversation with someone.

Shared by M3wThr33
"Citing several anonymous sources familiar with Papermaster's downfall, the WSJ says the following: "
"Jobs knew about the risks of the antenna design as much as a year ago and it was his decision, not Papermaster's, to move forward with its development."

Mr. Papermaster had lost the confidence of Mr. Jobs months ago and hasn't been part of the decision-making process for some time, these people said. They added that Mr. Papermaster didn't appear to have the type of creative thinking expected at Apple and wasn't used to Apple's corporate culture, where even senior executives are expected to keep on top of the smallest details of their areas of responsibility and often have to handle many tasks directly, as opposed to delegating them.

WSJ: Apple lost confidence in Papermaster months ago, Jobs accepted iPhone 4 antenna risks originally appeared on Engadget on Mon, 09 Aug 2010 02:31:00 EDT. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Shared by tamihania
Wonderful new pictures by Terry Border.

Dogs are great people trainers.

Those of you that have dogs know this already, but my girlfriend and I have been learning it over the past few weeks with a new Whippet/Lab mix. It's amazing.

A dog will try to exert dominance over you again and again. If you don't react appropriately, the dog realizes it has power over you. It doesn't respect your authority because it's getting mixed messages. The dog wins.

People are also great people trainers. They teach you how to treat them. They test you to see how you react, often without even knowing it.

I have a great story about a girl I know whose boyfriend had cancelled on her one night. She didn't know what to do, so I suggested she call and say in no uncertain terms that it wasn't acceptable.

She did this. He showed up with flowers.

I don't know for sure, but I imagine kids are great people trainers too. If they whine and get a sugary treat to shut them up, they will detect a pattern and act on it. We teach them to do this. Am I right?

Confidence is a circular pattern. It will reinforce itself in either direction, heading either towards zero or infinity, until it is regulated by an outside force. Whatever outside force stops it is an outpost of dominance, a kind of flag that says beyond this point, you shall not pass.

These flags eventually start feeling like walls, and these walls impact what decisions you make about your life.

Maybe this is the reason you stopped playing guitar, or stopped working out. This may be why you haven't quit your job, I don't know. But the reality is that these markers of confidence are just as fluid as the relationship you have with your dog. They are fluid. They can be changed.

We act as if our life right now is the way our life is supposed to be, but you could just as easily be a CEO as you could be a janitor or homeless or dead. But you happen to be alive, and you happen to gave a fair amount of freedom in your life.

Maybe it's time you exerted it.

WASHINGTON Consumers are having second thoughts about the recovery.

Shoppers are losing confidence, becoming more concerned about low pay and a weak job market than about bargains. And their worries are threatening to drag down the economy.

A report released Friday showed that consumer confidence fell in July to its lowest point in nearly a year. A volatile stock market, near-double-digit unemployment, lackluster wage gains and a stalled housing market have raised fears that the recovery is on the verge of stalling.

Americans reacted by clamping down on their spending in May and June. Many cut back after the stock market lost about 10 percent of its value over the past three months, as Europe's debt crisis shook Wall Street. The resulting loss of household wealth has left many Americans less inclined to spend.

Retail sales were weak this spring and probably slowed growth in the second quarter. Consumer spending accounts for about 70 percent of growth.

With unemployment at 9.5 percent, shoppers are likely to stay frugal in the coming months. If they retrench sharply, businesses could cut back on hiring. Potentially, the economy could slip back into recession. The odds of that happening, while still low, have risen in the past three months, economists said.

"Consumers are hitting their reset button now after they were pretty engaged in their spending earlier this year," said Brian Bethune, economist at IHS Global Insight. "People are saying, 'Time out. The economy isn't progressing the way we thought it would.'"

Their confidence isn't likely to brighten this summer. The index of consumer sentiment sank to 66.5 in early July, from 76, according to the twice-monthly survey by the University of Michigan and Reuters. That's the lowest point since August 2009.

The drop in confidence, along with uneasiness about future bank earnings, rattled Wall Street. The Dow Jones industrial average tumbled 261 points to close at 10,097.90.

Many shoppers are holding on to their money even though prices on most goods fell for the third straight month.

The Consumer Price Index, the government's most closely watched inflation gauge, dipped 0.1 percent in June, the Labor Department said Friday. Lower energy bills were a big factor behind the drop. Prices for some food, airline fares, computers, phone service and personal-care products also fell in June.

When you exclude the volatile categories of energy and food, prices were essentially flat for the month. Core prices have risen only 0.9 percent over the past year. That's below the Fed's inflation target, and it means core inflation is at a 44-year low.

The recent stretch of falling prices, at the consumer and wholesale level, has stirred talk of possible deflation a widespread and prolonged period of falling wages and declining prices on retail goods, real estate and stocks. America's last serious case of deflation was during the Depression of the 1930s.

Most economists do not believe deflation will happen, though some Fed officials have recently raised such concerns.

With inflation largely nonexistent, workers have a little more buying power. Average hourly earnings adjusted for inflation rose 0.6 percent for the 12 months ended June.

Because inflation as measured by the government has essentially disappeared, the Federal Reserve has even more leeway now to keep a key interest rate at a record low near zero. Low rates should help nurture the economic recovery and nip deflationary forces. Economists predict the Fed will not start boosting rates until next year or possibly 2012.

Many analysts think the economy's growth will slow in the second half of this year to a subpar 2 percent range, from a modest 3 percent in the first half. An economy that is fragile is more vulnerable to shocks that could sent it into reverse.

But there's a silver lining in the weak recovery.

Energy prices fell 2.9 percent in June for the second straight month. Gasoline prices led the decline with a 4.5 percent drop, giving a break to motorists. Prices for electricity and fuel oil also fell.

Global oil prices have been falling amid fears that the European debt crisis will hurt growth on the continent and slow the global recovery. U.S. motorists are paying an average of $2.72 for a gallon of regular unleaded.

Overall food prices were flat in June. But prices fell for cereals and baked goods, fruits and vegetables, and nonalcoholic beverages, providing some bargains for grocery shoppers.

Last month, prices for airline fares dropped by the most since February.

Still, shoppers have felt the pinch elsewhere. Prices for medical care, which continue to outpace overall inflation, rose 0.3 percent. And education costs rose 0.4 percent. Clothing prices increased 0.8 percent, the most since February 2009, although those prices have slipped 0.4 percent over the past 12 months.

"There's a sense of ennui and frustration on the part of consumers," said Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics. The job market "is certainly weaker than many had hoped. The stock market has been lackluster. We get negative headlines that grind on day after day. The BP oil spill. Talk of a double-dip recession. All this explains why American consumers' spirits are down."

This week, MerchantCircle shared the results of its "Merchant Confidence Index," in which about 10,000 local merchants shared their confidence levels in the current economy. While confidence has remained generally flat, the index also found that many of these merchants are more prominently using social media as a free online marketing tool to increase their customer base and revenue.

"Our recent survey reflects continued uncertainty among merchants. Economic outlook has decreased to roughly the same level as November 2009, with most business owners continuing to think the worst is yet to come," said Darren Waddell, vice president of marketing for MerchantCircle. "However, we were pleased to see that most aren't planning for layoffs or pay cuts for employees. Small business owners are continuing to become web savvy in their marketing by increasingly augmenting traditional advertising with free methods like social networking to generate additional business."

Among the findings of the survey were the following numbers for how people are promoting their businesses with various tools. It is interesting to see how little respondents are using some of the services attracting the most attention these days (mainly the ones furthest to the right):

Still, awareness of location-based services is on the rise. For example, MerchantCircle says today, 16% of merchants are familiar with Foursquare, whereas in Q1 of 2010, the number was only 8%. Likewise, 32% of merchants that are aware of Foursquare are using it to promote their business, compared to 25% in Q1.

It is worth noting that this is the first time social networking has eclipsed all other marketing channels to become the most popular among survey participants since MerchantCircle has been doing the survey.

This is a guest post by Gary Kohler from LifeCover.ca.

To get noticed as a blogger you need to stand out.

You need to pick a niche and be the strongest voice of that online community. To get attention you need to stir the pot every once in a while but most of all you need to keep people wanting more.

There are many ways that this is similar to the world of gangster rap and here are five reasons why.

1) Final Goodbyes

Bloggers and rappers both love the final goodbye. The brackets are there because usually the final goodbyes are not actually final.

Some rappers will retire every second album but they will inevitably come back for another record or three. Bloggers do this too. They might need a vacation or some time to focus on their family but a lot of times they'll come crawling back to their little soapbox.

Rappers do it to sell more records and to hype their newest effort. Bloggers likely do it for comment love and to send people to their newest blog or website. Once in a while a blogger or rapper will quit for good but most of the time they'll be back for more.

2) Posses

Popular rappers and bloggers both have a posse that will watch their back at all times. Blog followers will retweet everything a popular blogger says and rappers will help hype the records of fellow posse members.

One negative post against one blogger posse can mean 20 negative posts at the other blogger's posse. Bullets aren't flying but it can still get pretty ugly.

3) Controversy

In rap we tend to remember the folks that caused a big scene.

We remember the ones that got shot (Tupac & Biggy), those that went to jail (ODB), and those that act like jerks at MTV Movie Awards (Kanye West).

Why do we think of Parez Hilton or Gawker or Shoe Money or Ariana Huffington when we think of bloggers? All of these bloggers aren't afraid of a little controversy and they aren't afraid to be different either just like their rap counterparts.

4) Rivalries

Beefs aren't just for rappers. People have differing opinions on every subject in the world. Combine that with the ability to publish pretty much anything you want in an open and online forum such as a blog and you're just waiting for disagreements.

Some of the best blogger beefs are between sports fans but you can find haters in all types of niches: social media, SEO, finance, religion, politics, and just about anything else people are passionate about.

5) Confidence

In almost every single rap album the artist will mention they are the greatest rapper alive. Jay-Z says it every third line in some songs.

This is no different than some bloggers that feel the need to sprinkle their blog posts with constant self-congratulation because they have accumulated 200 RSS subscribers.

Not all bloggers are like this but oozing confidence can make you seem like you know what you're talking about, whether you do or not.

This is a guest post by Gary Kohler from LifeCover.ca.

Not Giving A Fuck 101.

I was inspired by Chris Brogan's post today in which he discusses confidence and conviction. Before you read my comment (below), go check out his post and come back. Here are some highlights:

The guest at the table next to mine asked their server, What do you think of the halibut special?

The server replied, I'm not really sure. What did you have in mind when you came in? You know, people really are much happier when they have something in mind. I think it's okay. I've sold a lot of it. I haven't personally tried it, but it looks good.

All I was thinking was, if I were the server, I'd say this:

It's a great presentation: crispy top and served over our lime rice. I've sold lots of it today.

[...]

No waffling allowed.

Confidence and conviction are the key to many things in life.

A frequent critic (and someone I admire a lot), Ben Kunz, once said something like this about me (not his exact words): What I hate most about you is that you always sound like you know exactly what you're talking about, and that's dangerous.

I took this to be a great compliment. Again, I admire Ben a lot. He doesn't let me rest on my laurels.

I take great pride in my confidence and conviction in matters that are important to me. I use confidence as a leadership trait all the time. And I admit when I'm wrong as often as is necessary to make those two traits worth a damn.

This got me thinking. This is a pretty important topic, especially given Ben's dangerous comment thrown in. It may not seem like it, but confidence and conviction are two of the most important building blocks of professional competence. And in an industry (Social Media) drowning in incompetence, the danger isn't that someone should speak with conviction about what they are competent in. Incompetence posing as competence is the danger, not confidence and conviction. Here is my response to Chris' post:

Reminds me of rule #3: Know your sh*t. As a waiter, an executive, a cultural anthropologist, a politician, a teacher, a doctor or whatever. Just know your sh*t. A waiter who hasn't tasted everything on the menu isn't taking their job seriously.

Knowing exactly what you're talking about isn't dangerous. It just means that when you bother to open your mouth, you aren't just making monkey noises for the sake of getting attention. You speak with purpose about something you know about. I've watched you in action, Chris. If the common advice is to listen 80% of the time and talk 20% of it, you have the uncommon trait of pushing the ratio to its limits: You listen about 95% of the time and talk 5% of it, if that. That tells me that when you DO say something, I had better listen. And so far, even what you think is just improv is still seeped in insight. You have good instincts, Chris. It's why you rarely say something dumb.

Likewise, when you don't know something, you have no problem saying I don't know but let's find out, which takes confidence as well, and lays the foundations for conviction when someone asks the question again next time and you actually know the answer.

With all due respect to Ben, the danger isn't to speak with confidence and conviction about things you know. The danger is to speak with false confidence and a facade of conviction about things you don't know well enough. Too many people choose the latter as their MO. You don't. It's why I read your stuff.

We saw this last year with the Social Media R.O.I. debacle, which few of the self-professed experts and gurus who blabbed about the mysterious acronym bothered to even look up in wikepedia, much less learn about from a business class or an actual management job. Instead of either learning how to define R.O.I. or (god forbid) tie to a P&L, many just made up their own versions. Others dismissed the need for R.O.I. completely. Precious few admitted that R.O.I. was outside of their expertise, which was the right thing to do. The professional thing to do.

Here's a tip: Community managers don't necessarily need to be experts in R.O.I. Case in point: If you're an expert in customer service on Twitter, or community management, or online reputation management, speak with confidence and conviction about that. The guy responding to negative comments on facebook doesn't need to be an expert in doing anything but creating content and managing positive and negative comments. The R.O.I. piece, let it go to someone better equipped and trained to deal with it. Leave the stuff you don't know to people who DO know. Businesses need real expertise, not smoke and mirrors and made-up expertise.

As an aside, you will get a lot further in life by learning how to get good at something than pretending to be good at something you suck at.

Don't lie. Don't make it up, hoping you won't get found out. Learn what you can, be honest about what you know and don't know yet, and make sure that you know what you're talking about before opening your mouth. In other words, just know your sh*t.

Filed under: adaptation, competence, competitive edge, relevance, reputation management, ROI, social media Tagged: brandbuilder, chris brogan, competence, confidence, conviction, honesty, olivier blanchard, R.O.I., ROI

I'm writing this post from my local ale house (hey, you work where you want; I'll work where I want). The guest at the table next to mine asked their server, What do you think of the halibut special?

The server replied, I'm not really sure. What did you have in mind when you came in? You know, people really are much happier when they have something in mind. I think it's okay. I've sold a lot of it. I haven't personally tried it, but it looks good.

All I was thinking was, if I were the server, I'd say this:

It's a great presentation: crispy top and served over our lime rice. I've sold lots of it today.

The guest had opened this can of worms. She had asked what the server recommended. The server's job at that moment? Recommend the thing the guest would be astounded and pleased to eat. That's it. No waffling allowed.

Confidence and conviction are the key to many things in life.

A frequent critic (and someone I admire a lot), Ben Kunz, once said something like this about me (not his exact words): What I hate most about you is that you always sound like you know exactly what you're talking about, and that's dangerous.

I took this to be a great compliment. Again, I admire Ben a lot. He doesn't let me rest on my laurels.

I take great pride in my confidence and conviction in matters that are important to me. I use confidence as a leadership trait all the time. And I admit when I'm wrong as often as is necessary to make those two traits worth a damn.

Oh, and one last detail:

The halibut looked pretty, but my first bite had three bones in it, and it tasted a bit too fishy in their preparation. I would've given the guest the wrong advice. But I'd have meant it, and she'd have bought it. And if she complained, I'd tell her that I was clearly wrong, and offer her another meal. That's what happens.

Confidence. Conviction. Practice them.

Unless you occupy such a privileged perch that you only rub elbows with hoi oligoi, you probably didn't need the Pew Research Center's Social and Demographic Trends Project to tell you that since the recession began in December 2007, more than half of Americans have become unemployed, taken a pay cut, suffered a reduction in hours or had to take a temporary job because they couldn't find a full-time post.

The survey also finds that the recession has led to a new frugality in Americans' spending and borrowing habits; a diminished set of expectations about their retirements and their children's future; and a concern that it will take several years, at a minimum, for their family finances and house values to recover.

Not all survey findings are bleak. More than six-in-ten (62%) Americans believe that their personal finances will improve in the coming year, and a small but growing minority (15%) now says the national economy is in good shape.

That glimmer of optimism doesn't quite mesh with the plunge in across-the-board consumer confidence released by the Conference Board Tuesday. But never mind. On most other matters, the Pew results were bleak.

For instance, while economists' measurements say the recession is over, Pew found that most Americans don't think it is.

In a partisan switch, Democrats are "much more upbeat than Republicans," even though they have lower incomes, less wealth and have been more likely to be in that 55 percent of Americans who have suffered some kind of job hit in the recession. That, Pew says, is because Republicans "are more likely than Democrats to say their house has lost value, and because they are more likely than Democrats to have investments in the stock market, they've been more exposed to its volatile swings up and down."

Ironically, the most optimistic groups are African Americans, at 15.5 percent unemployment, and Latinos, at 12.4 percent. Even though they were hit harder with job losses and housing foreclosures, they believe the economic situation for the nation and for them personally will improve faster than do other demographic groups.

In addition to the consumer confidence report, the comparative optimism in the Pew study took some other hits this week when the second revision of first-quarter gross domestic product came in Tuesday at an annualized 2.7 percent, below projections and well below the initial report of 3.2 percent. Component elements of GDP painted an even worse picture.

And today, the ADP National Employment Report, which covers private non-farm employment, was well below expectations, with only 13,000 newly created jobs from May to June. Expert consensus said the number would be 60,000. ADP said recent "data suggest that, following steady improvement through April, private employment may have decelerated heading into the summer."

ADP's numbers, which do not count government hiring, have a very mixed record as a predictor of what the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports each month. That report will be released Friday morning. Consensus is that the BLS will show that some 150,000 private-sector jobs were added in June, with a loss of 200,000-250,000 temporary Census jobs. But consensus on the BLS numbers has been far off the mark in recent months. I wouldn't bet next month's rent or mortgage payment on those numbers if I were you.

Whatever the latest jobless figures turn out to be, we may well see anomalies in the unemployment rate thanks to obstructionists in the Congress. The failure to pass an extension of unemployment benefits may cause more people to stop looking for work, taking them off the jobless roster and thus eliminating them from calculations of the percentage of Americans who are out of work. That's one of a number of problems with how such calculations are made in the first place.

While most eyes have been focused on the acute crisis - the one that's been dogging the economy for the past 30 months - less attention has been given to the chronic, structural crisis created by off-shored jobs and their effect on wages, the lack of a U.S. industrial policy like the ones every developed country and many developing countries such as India, China and Brazil have, and the failure to repair old infrastructure and innovate a new one.

While we're treated to a deficit commission whose chief task seems to be focused on how to eviscerate Social Security, there are no signs of a commission being created to deal with those chronic problems because, no doubt, such a move would smack of planning, and that, of course, would be socialistic.

1. Lack of motivation. A talent is irrelevant if a person is not motivated to use it. Motivation may be external (for example, social approval) or internal (satisfaction from a job well-done, for instance). External sources tend to be transient, while internal sources tend to produce more consistent performance.

2. Lack of impulse control. Habitual impulsiveness gets in the way of optimal performance. Some people do not bring their full intellectual resources to bear on a problem but go with the first solution that pops into their heads.

3. Lack of perserverance and perseveration. Some people give up too easily, while others are unable to stop even when the quest will clearly be fruitless.

4. Using the wrong abilities. People may not be using the right abilities for the tasks in which they are engaged.

5. Inability to translate thought into action. Some people seem buried in thought. They have good ideas but rarely seem able to do anything about them.

6. Lack of product orientation. Some people seem more concerned about the process than the result of activity.

7. Inability to complete tasks. For some people nothing ever draws to a close. Perhaps it's fear of what they would do next or fear of becoming hopelessly enmeshed in detail.

8. Failure to initiate. Still others are unwilling or unable to initiate a project. It may be indecision or fear of commitment.

9. Fear of failure. People may not reach peak performance because they avoid the really important challenges in life.

10. Procrastination. Some people are unable to act without pressure. They may also look for little things to do in order to put off the big ones.

11. Misattribution of blame. Some people always blame themselves for even the slightest mishap. Some always blame others.

12. Excessive self-pity. Some people spend more time feeling sorry for themselves than expending the effort necessary to overcome the problem.

13. Excessive dependency. Some people expect others to do for them what they ought to be doing themselves.

14. Wallowing in personal difficulties. Some people let their personal difficulties interfere grossly with their work. During the course of life, one can expect some real joys and some real sorrows. Maintaining a proper perspective is often difficult.

15. Distractibility and lack of concentration. Even some very intelligent people have very short attention spans.

16. Spreading oneself too think or too thick. Undertaking too many activities may result in none being completed on time. Undertaking too few can also result in missed opportunities and reduced levels of accomplishment.

17. Inability to delay gratification. Some people reward themselves and are rewarded by others for finishing small tasks, while avoiding bigger tasks that would earn them larger rewards.

18. Inability to see the forest for the trees. Some people become obsessed with details and are either unwilling or unable to see or deal with the larger picture in the projects they undertake.

19. Lack of balance between critical, analytical thinking and creative, synthetic thinking. It is important for people to learn what kind of thinking is expected of them in each situation.

20. Too little or too much self-confidence. Lack of self-confidence can gnaw away at a person's ability to get things done and become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Conversely, individuals with too much self-confidence may not know when to admit they are wrong or in need of self-improvement.

A/B testing isn't a buzz term. A lot of savvy marketers and designs are using it right now to gain insight into visitor behavior and to increase conversion rate. And yet A/B testing is still not as common as such Internet marketing subjects as SEO, Web analytics and usability. People just aren't as aware of it. They don't completely understand what it is or how it could benefit them or how they should use it. This article is meant to be the best guide you will ever need for A/B testing.

[Offtopic: by the way, did you know that there is a Smashing eBook Series? Book #1 is Professional Web Design, 242 pages for just $9,90.]

What Is A/B Testing?

At its core, A/B testing is exactly what it sounds like: you have two versions of an element (A and B) and a metric that defines success. To determine which version is better, you subject both versions to experimentation simultaneously. In the end, you measure which version was more successful and select that version for real-world use.

This is similar to the experiments you did in Science 101. Remember the experiment in which you tested various substances to see which supports plant growth and which suppresses it. At different intervals, you measured the growth of plants as they were subjected to different conditions, and in the end you tallied the increase in height of the different plants.

Large version

A/B testing on the Web is similar. You have two designs of a website: A and B. Typically, A is the existing design (called the control), and B is the new design. You split your website traffic between these two versions and measure their performance using metrics that you care about (conversion rate, sales, bounce rate, etc.). In the end, you select the version that performs best.

What To Test?

Your choice of what to test will obviously depend on your goals. For example, if your goal is to increase the number of sign-ups, then you might test the following: length of the sign-up form, types of fields in the form, display of privacy policy, social proof, etc. The goal of A/B testing in this case is to figure out what prevents visitors from signing up. Is the form's length intimidating? Are visitors concerned about privacy? Or does the website do a bad job of convincing visitors to sign up? All of these questions can be answered one by one by testing the appropriate website elements.

Even though every A/B test is unique, certain elements are usually tested:

• The call to action's (i.e. the button's) wording, size, color and placement,
• Headline or product description,
• Form's length and types of fields,
• Layout and style of website,
• Product pricing and promotional offers,
• Images on landing and product pages,
• Amount of text on the page (short vs. long).

Create Your First A/B Test

Once you've decided what to test, the next step, of course, is to select a tool for the job. If you want a free basic tool and don't mind fiddling with HTML and JavaScript, go with Google Website Optimizer. If you want an easier alternative with extra features, go with Visual Website Optimizer (disclaimer: my start-up). Other options are available, which I discuss at the end of this post. Setting up the core test is more or less similar for all tools, so we can discuss it while remaining tool-agnostic.

You can set up an A/B test in one of two ways:

• Replace the element to be tested before the page loads
  If you are testing a single element on a Web pagesay, the sign-up buttonthen you'll need to create variations of that button (in HTML) in your testing tool. When the test is live, the A/B tool will randomly replace the original button on the page with one of the variations before displaying the page to the visitor.
• Redirect to another page
  If you want to A/B test an entire pagesay, a green theme vs. a red themethen you'll need to create and upload a new page on your website. For example, if your home page is http://www.example.com/index.html, then you'll need to create a variation located at http://www.example.com/index1.html. When the test runs, your tool will redirect some visitors to one of your alternate URLs.

Once you have set up your variations using one of these two methods, the next step is to set up your conversion goal. Typically, you will get a piece of JavaScript code, which you would copy and paste onto a page that would represent a successful test were a visitor to arrive there. For example, if you have an e-commerce store and you are testing the color of the Buy now button, then your conversion goal would be the Thank you page that is displayed to visitors after they complete a purchase.

As soon as a conversion event occurs on your website, the A/B testing tool records the variation that was shown to the visitor. After a sufficient number of visitors and conversions, you can check the results to find out which variation drove the most conversions. That's it! Setting up and running an A/B test is indeed quite simple.

Do's And Don'ts

Even though A/B testing is super-simple in concept, keep some practical things in mind. These suggestions are a result of my real-world experience of doing many A/B tests (read: making numerous mistakes).

Don'ts

• When doing A/B testing, never ever wait to test the variation until after you've tested the control. Always test both versions simultaneously. If you test one version one week and the second the next, you're doing it wrong. It's possible that version B was actually worse but you just happened to have better sales while testing it. Always split traffic between two versions.
• Don't conclude too early. There is a concept called statistical confidence that determines whether your test results are significant (that is, whether you should take the results seriously). It prevents you from reading too much into the results if you have only a few conversions or visitors for each variation. Most A/B testing tools report statistical confidence, but if you are testing manually, consider accounting for it with an online calculator.
• Don't surprise regular visitors. If you are testing a core part of your website, include only new visitors in the test. You want to avoid shocking regular visitors, especially because the variations may not ultimately be implemented.
• Don't let your gut feeling overrule test results. The winners in A/B tests are often surprising or unintuitive. On a green-themed website, a stark red button could emerge as the winner. Even if the red button isn't easy on the eye, don't reject it outright. Your goal with the test is a better conversion rate, not aesthetics, so don't reject the results because of your arbitrary judgment.

Do's

• Know how long to run a test before giving up. Giving up too early can cost you because you may have gotten meaningful results had you waited a little longer. Giving up too late isn't good either, because poorly performing variations could cost you conversions and sales. Use a calculator (like this one) to determine exactly how long to run a test before giving up.
• Show repeat visitors the same variations. Your tool should have a mechanism for remembering which variation a visitor has seen. This prevents blunders, such as showing a user a different price or a different promotional offer.
• Make your A/B test consistent across the whole website. If you are testing a sign-up button that appears in multiple locations, then a visitor should see the same variation everywhere. Showing one variation on page 1 and another variation on page 2 will skew the results.
• Do many A/B tests. Let's face it: chances are, your first A/B test will turn out a lemon. But don't despair. An A/B test can have only three outcomes: no result, a negative result or a positive result. The key to optimizing conversion rates is to do a ton of A/B tests, so that all positive results add up to a huge boost to your sales and achieved goals.

Classic A/B Testing Case Studies

Here are some case studies to give you an idea of how people test in the wild.

Writing Decisions: Headline Tests on the Highrise Sign-Up Page
37signals tested the headline on its pricing page. It found that 30-Day Free Trial on All Accounts generated 30% more sign-ups than the original Start a Highrise Account.

You Should Follow Me on Twitter Here (Dustin Curtis)
This much-hyped split-test involved testing multiple versions of a call to action for Twitter followers. Dustin found that You should follow me on Twitter here worked 173% better than his control text, I'm on Twitter.

Human Photos Double Conversion Rates
A surprising conclusion from two separate A/B tests: putting human photos on a website increases conversion rates by as much as double. Scientific research backs this up, saying that we are subconsciously attracted to images with people.

Google Website Optimizer Case Study: Daily Burn, 20%+ Improvement (Tim Ferriss)
A simple variation that gave visitors fewer options too choose from resulted in a 20% increase in conversions. The winning version was also much easier on the eye than the control in its detail and text.

Two Magical Words Increased Conversion Rate by 28%
The words It's free increased the clicks on this sign-up button by 28%, illustrating the importance of testing call-to-action buttons and how minor changes can have surprisingly major results.

Changing the Sign-Up Button from Green to Red
Along with its other A/B tests, CareLogger increased its conversion rate by 34% simply by changing the color of the sign-up button from green to red!

Single page vs. multi-step checkout
If you have an online store, it is quite common to see visitors abandoning the purchase process at the time of checkout. This A/B test found out that a single page checkout process works much better at completing sales than multiple-page checkout process.

"Mad Libs" style form increases conversion 25-40%
Defeating conventional wisdom, in this A/B test it was found out that a paragraph-styled form with inline input fields worked much better than traditional form layout. Though the result was probably specific to their offering as it wasn't replicated in another, separate A/B test.

Complete redesign of product page increased sales by 20%
A software product company redesigned their product page to give it a modern look and added trust building elements (such as seals, guarentees, etc.). End result: they managed to increase total sales by 20%. This case study demonstrates the effect of design on sales.

Marketing Experiments response capture case study triple digit increase in conversions
Through a series of A/B tests they optimized the mailing list opt-in rate by 258%. Focus was to remove all distractions and require the visitor to only provide email address. For completing his/her complete profile, the landing page motivated the visitors with an Amazon gift card (which was again split tested).

Tools For A/B Testing

A number of tools are available for A/B testing, with different focuses, price points and feature sets. Here are some:

• Google Website Optimizer
  A free A/B testing tool from the search giant. A great option to get started, but lacks advanced features.
• A/Bingo and Vanity
  Server-side frameworks for Ruby on Rails developers. Requires programming and integration in code.
• Visual Website Optimizer
  An easy-to-use A/B testing tool, with advanced features such as WYSIWYG editor, click maps, visitor segmentation and tag-less integration. (Disclaimer: my start-up.)
• Unbounce and Performable
  Landing-page creators with integrated A/B testing.
• Vertster, SiteSpect, Webtrends Optimize and Omniture's Test&Target
  Enterprise testing tools.

Resources For Deep-Diving Into A/B Testing

If you've read this far, then A/B testing has presumably piqued your interest. Here, then, are some cherry-picked resources on A/B testing from across the Web.

Get Ideas for Your Next A/B Test

• Which Test Won?
  A game in which you guess which variation won in a test.
• 101 A/B Testing Tips
  A comprehensive resource of tips, tricks and ideas.
• ABtests.com
  A place to share and read A/B test results.
• A/B Ideafox
  A search engine for A/B and multivariate case studies.

Introductory Presentations and Articles

• Effective A/B Testing
  By Ben Tilly.
• Practical Guide to Controlled Experiments on the Web (PDF)
  From Microsoft Research.
• Introduction to A/B Testing
  From the 20bits blog

The Mathematics of A/B Testing

• Statistics for A/B Testing
  From the 20bits blog.
• How Not to Do A/B Testing
• What You Should Know About the Mathematics of A/B Testing
  From my own blog.
• Easy Statistics for AdWords A/B Testing, and Hamsters
• Statistical Significance and Other A/B Test Pitfalls

(al)

Paras Chopra for Smashing Magazine, 2010. | Permalink | Post a comment | Add to del.icio.us | Digg this | Stumble on StumbleUpon! | Tweet it! | Submit to Reddit | Forum Smashing Magazine
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Hey - I think Ballmer is going to buy 600k WinMo7 phones with his own money!

In a CNN interview Steve Ballmer has expressed confidence in Microsoft's Windows Phone strategy, saying the first job was to reverse decline, but that, after a good reception from the so-called blogosphere he felt the OS would take off from there.

Do our readers share his confidence, or is the marketplace much too crowded already for yet another new entrant? Let us know below.

The National Federation of Independent Business continues to report a very weak economic environment for small businesses. The NFIB's small index optimism index improved this month, but the outlook for the economy remains very tepid. William C. Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist says the economy remains very weak:

The performance of the economy is mediocre at best. Given the extent of the decline over the past two years, pent up demand should be immense, but it is not triggering a rapid pickup in economic activity. Compared to past recoveries, it is clear that the current economic recovery has not impacted the expectations of small business owners. They do not trust the economic policies in place or proposed and are distressed by global and national developments that make the future more uncertain.

The outlook index remains just shy of its lows:

This is having a direct impact on employment as small businesses remain hesitant to ramp up hiring. The index actually declined for the month as small businesses continue to shed jobs:

Source: NFIB

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• What would you say is the main habit that is common to all successful online business owners?
• Is there one thing that if you just applied it would make a massive difference to your own progress?

As a inquisitive student of internet marketing I talk to a lot of people involved in the online business world, friends, gurus, mentors. I'm also a big fan of business biographies and checking out interviews with the experts. In investigating these folks' strategies, something comes up again and again. The more you look for it, the more it shows up clear as day.

It doesn't matter who they are, what they do, how they made their profits, or even how they spent them one approach is fundemental every single time.

From the outside though we get the wrong impression. People try to replicate their success and miss this vital factor, which hampers any progress they would ever make, or worse sets them up for massive failure.

What is this crucial thing?

All the successful online business people I know or have observed have all grown powerful business relationships and networks.

Who you know really is as important as what you know.

You Can't Make it on Your Own!

Networking is vital for success. You have to get out and meet people.

Look at some of these people and you think they are entirely self-made, but behind the scenes there are always key contacts not one of them could have gotten to where they are without someone making a significant impact.

Many actively seek out the person or people who can help them get to the next level: joint ventures, partnerships, teams, mentors, advisors

Just consider your own projects for a moment. What would it mean to you if you could get advice, links and traffic, launch a joint product, guest articles on top blogs, get into the A-lister inner circle? Think you would make more progress if you had some friends in cool places?

From Richard Branson down to the blogging folks you see launching their latest ebooks, it takes a strong network to make strong progress. You think Richard Branson knows how to run an airline or get tourists into space?

You know why networks come into play during product launches too we need the traffic and social proof that having multiple people recommend and discuss your product brings! Each one of those big email lists adds many potential buyers.

The downside is anyone with something to offer, be it expertise or a big list, is already going to be inundated with requests. How do you get the attention of the big players?

Build Your Network Now!

You know what they say; Build your well before you are thirsty. Get building your network now.

Of course if you need contacts right now then you need to move even faster!

This is all fair enough, but what holds people back?

Networking Self-Sabbotage

There are two key ways that people hamper thier own efforts, and I am going to share both with a little of my story.

As some people have guessed for a while, I am shy and introverted. This used to hold me back a great deal.

I was so nervous talking to people that I couldn't order a Big Mac without breaking into a panic sweat.

Breaking into the programming geek world was difficult, but bit by bit I managed to grow a decent network almost entirely online. This was before the major social networking sites and services. The benefits were huge. Book deals, traffic, leads, and membership of insiders groups with direct access to top Microsoft employees. I credit my friends in the business for me getting the Microsoft MVP award. This was what made me realise how I had missed out trying to get by on my own merits.

Then I decided to quit and become an internet marketer.

Now I knew I really needed to make some great contacts if I was going to learn much about this business. I started online, using the same techniques and tactics I developed while networking the coder community.

Anyone who has tried to learn the real secrets of things like Search Engine Optimisation, or get support from key contacts at big companies, knows that there is a limit to what you can do via forums, free articles and submitting tickets in contact forms though.

At some point I was going to have to show my face!

My first networking event was a bit traumatic. I felt sick to my stomach, and was visibly shaking. At the time I felt I had done everything wrong. I talked to a few guys who were also quietly propping up the bar in the corner. After not long I felt the nerves were too much and excused myself, feeling like a failure.

I didn't realize that I had actually got some things right. Far from being a miserable failure, that networking event has brought me some fantastic, priceless contacts and over six figures in revenue, and is still worth a great deal of profit to this day.

My next networking event, without knowing the first was going to pay off, I decided to employ some tricks of the networking trade that I had picked up from forums. Those tricks absolutely bombed. None of it suited me and the more I tried to get up the courage to use them, the more nervous I got. You see, these networking tricks only work for certain situations and personality types, if at all. The real nail in the coffin of those approaches was being on the receiving end of them and noticing how sucky an experience that was too!

So, in talking to people, relating my story and finding out I am not alone, it is clear what the biggest self-sabbotaging traits in networking are.

The two big mistakes networkers make are:

1. Being too shy to try - Any social situation is difficult if you are shy and/or introverted, but especially when you feel you have more on the line than just pride alone. But we must make contacts and friends in the business if we are going to progress any more than in a limited way. We need other people!
2. Trying to be something we are not Kind of like the people who try to get dates by using lame pickup lines and fake personas, we are given the impression that networking is all about having a rehearsed elevator pitch and a kick-ass business card. Sadly it is not so straightforward, as anyone who has been bombarded with business cards or cornered in an elevator by someone wanting to pitch will tell you!

You might be thinking the biggest mistake is not trying, but I find that all but the tiniest minority of people do try. At least once or twice. Many give up, many struggle on, but most try.

The one big lesson I want you to get from reading this is to get out there, practice but be yourself.

As I said above, even though I thought I had majorly fouled up on my first attempt at genuine networking, it actually worked out really well. It worked out because, despite my shyness and nerves, I was myself.

How Anyone Can Connect With Ease and Confidence

Discover how to connect with confidence with Shy Networking

If you want to quickly learn how to network effectively, without stretching your comfort zone too far or coming across as a fake, then I have good news!

Lewis Howes (the LinkedIn expert and sports networker) and I have put together an online class called Shy Networking that will show everything we have learned about growing effective networks the right way. As well as showing how to use all the modern tools to allow you connect with anyone by networking online, we have also got all the goods on how to make face to face networking not just profitable, but a pleasure, for even the most shy.

Go ahead and check out Shy Networking now, and I look forward to us connecting

Your Free Subscriber Download!

This text has been taken from the article The #1 Habit of Effective Online Business Owners. 2010 Chris Garrett chrisg.com

We can all relate to jumps on our snowboard that look and feel like the above picture.

This article is going to give you a step-by-step guide to overcoming your fear and stomping straight airs with confidence and style, you can even practice it over the summer.

The most common remedy

If you've ever looked online for tips to improve your snowboarding, then you will have come across countless trick tips like this. These give you a good visual example of how to perform the trick. But they don't show you how to overcome the fear.

Visual examples are useful for learning ground tricks (such as ollies and presses) because there is little danger involved. But once you progress onto jumping, fear increases dramatically (at least for the majority of us it does).

It's all in your head

Fear takes control when you picture all the things that could go wrong with the trick, rather than picturing yourself stomping the trick. You are effectively pouring petrol on your burning fear. Training dampens the fear and unlocks your potential.

This article is going to show you a step-by-step guide on how to do this.

Confidence is key

Those of us not born with blind confidence in ourselves (like pros in trick tip videos seem to have) need training to beat the fear.

A large part of teaching people how to snowboard is giving them confidence, which helps them overcome their fear, which makes them more successful.

Training builds confidence

There is a lot of training that you can do which will minimise your fear, which is a major barrier to having a positive mental image.

A positive mental image supports an attitude of success, rather than an attitude of failure. Now which attitude would you rather have?

With that in mind we move onto

The humble straight air

A straight air is the foundation for any other jumping trick. If you're trying to learn spins before you've perfected straight airs, well, that's just silly. Learn to walk before you run.

I spent a long time just practising straight airs before I tried spinning. I toyed around with spinning, but I wanted to be comfortable in the air first. I would advise that you do the same.

The following 4 steps will show you how to build a solid foundation, a solid foundation will enable you to be more confident.

Remember: more confidence = less fear

Step 1: mental training

This step will improve your mental strength, which will help you have more focus and composure.

The mental attitude that you adopt is as important as the physical act. Some people naturally have blind confidence in themselves, most of us don't. I know I don't, so I had to train for it.

Mental training has proved to be as effective as physical training in my experience.

To give yourself a strong mindset, you need a strong mental image. If you've never watched snowboarders killing it, then you don't really have any positive mental images to use.

So this step requires you to watch lots of snowboard movies, which will give you some positive mental images to make your own. Positive doesn't mean watching 50 of the biggest snowboarding slams ever: part 5, that's no gonna help.

Don't worry about the fact that you can't see yourself ever being that good, that's just being negative. Remember, we are building positive mental images. If you don't want to buy snowboard movies, you can always check out:

• Youtube
• Mpora
• Whitelines
• Cheese Killer

Now you have positive mental images to play with, start to imagine yourself actually landing straight airs for a change, rather than thinking about all the things that could go wrong. You're much more likely to be successful if you have a strong mental image of success.

If you'd like to read more about this mental aspect, check out this post.

Step 2: train your muscles

This step will help you build muscle strength and muscle memory, both of which improve your awareness and timing.

If you've never tried a board sport before snowboarding, then your body has no muscle memories to call upon.

The more relevant muscle memories you develop, the quicker you will learn to jump, and the more confident you will feel.

Remember: more confidence = less fear

Here is an example of a simple training exercise that you could use to train your muscles to jump:

1. Stand on the spot and jump straight up in the air (bring your knees up towards your chest)
2. Repeat 20 times.

It's really as simple as that. Now ask yourself: how many times have I actually practised something like this?

The answer is probably not a lot.

Simple exercises like the above example performed daily for a couple of weeks will improve your jumping on a snowboard.

There are lots of other ways to train your muscles if you can't snowboard:

• Skateboarding
• Mountain boarding
• Wakeboarding
• Surfing
• Gymnastics

The more similar the movements required, the more muscle memories you will develop that you can use to snowboard. I see snowboarding movements in everything I do, but I am obsessed.

Step 3: Learn to pop

This step is required to pop off the lip (of the jump).

Pop is the term used to describe the act of pushing yourself off the ground, rather than just getting kicked by the jump (referred to as coasting). Coasting off a jump is OK when you are dealing with baby jumps, but as jumps get bigger, more pop is required to make the landing.

A good straight air requires solid pop.

Learning to pop first, then learning to hit jumps will build your confidence quicker.

Remember: more confidence = less fear

I'm not going to get into teaching you ollies in this article, but below is an example of a good trick tip video to demonstrate. Remember, ground tricks have little fear involved.

Once you know how to ollie, go practice jumping off, up and over stuff. It's the building block for many other freestyle tricks and helps build, you've guessed it, confidence. If there's no snow where you are then buy a skateboard and learn to ollie that sucker.

Step 4: practice, practice, practice

This is the step where you put all the pieces together

Bear with me, there is a visual example to come.

Go to a snowdome, dryslope or wait until the winter. But you need to get out there and practice. You can't expect after 10 tries to have perfected it, it will take time and dedication.

The most important thing when learning to jump is repetition. The best terrain parks have their own lift systems, which enable you to keep your flow.

I found this out whilst riding at Northstar in California, such a sick park! The lift goes from the bottom straight up to the top. You get so many laps in per day that you can't help but improve.

Step out your comfort zone

You can't expect to improve if you are always snowboarding in your comfort zone. You have to constantly push yourself. A little higher, a little bigger, a different grab, a little tweak, a big tweak.

You now have the missing pieces of the puzzle

This article has shown you how pro's get so good. It has shown you how to build confidence and crush that nasty fear. Pros don't just watch trick tips on youtube, they live and breath snowboarding in everything that they do. They think about it constantly, they push it constantly, they practice constantly.

You are now ready

Now you know how to train yourself for sucess, you are ready to take advantage of the following trick tip video (which is very good by the way):

And if you feel like it, why not write a comment below.

About the author: David Raybould is a Snowboard Instructor and Writer. You can connect with him on Twitter or Facebook.

Related articles on SimplySnowboard.com:

1. Wanna Kill It Like That Ginger Snowboard Dude? Read This
2. How To Improve Your Snowboard Spinning: And My First Ever Cab 900
3. Trick Tips: 5 Steps To Safely Learn Backflips On A Snowboard

This morning, President Obama will announce Elena Kagan as his second Supreme Court nominee. If confirmed, it will be the first time that three women will serve on the Court at once. Here's what else you need to know.

The Basics: Kagan, currently Obama's solicitor general, was the first woman to hold that position, as well as the female dean of Harvard Law School. A graduate of that school as well as Princeton and Oxford, she clerked for Justice Thurgood Marshall (who nicknamed her "Shorty") and Judge Abner Mikva. She taught at the University of Chicago Law School at the same time as the President, was a major aide in the Clinton Administration, worked for Joe Biden when he was on the Senate Judiciary Committee, and was appointed to her Harvard job by Larry Summers. At 50, she'd be the youngest member of the court, and the only one without experience as a judge.

She Is Widely Seen As Brilliant. One of the many testimonials to Kagan's fine mind is that of Sean Wilentz, the historian who advised her undergraduate thesis on the demise of New York socialism in the early 20th century. He says that Kagan is "one of the most extraordinary people I've met in my life, let alone teaching at Princeton."

...But You May Have To Take Someone Else's Word For It. Many have already complained of Kagan's relative reticence in public life. It's as if she's been grooming herself to be a Supreme Court Justice since high school in New York City, when she posed in her yearbook with a judge's robe and gavel above a quote from Justice Felix Frankfurter. In college, as editorial page editor of the Daily Princetonian, she oversaw unsigned editorials and her own beliefs were hard to pin down. Her relatively thin publication record as a law professor and civil servant led to her being recently compared to Harriet Miers, which is hotly disputed by her supporters.

But this may simply have been political savvy. Ironically, Kagan once criticized the confirmation process as being "an embarrassment," because "senators today do not insist that any nominee reveal what kind of Justice she would make, by disclosing her views on important legal issues."

She was also denied the opportunity to reveal more about her decision-making process, since Republicans blocked President Clinton's nomination of her as DC circuit judge from even getting a hearing. The spot eventually went to now-Chief Justice John Roberts. She is now being described as Obama's intended intellectual counterweight to Roberts on the Court.

Liberals Think She Isn't Liberal Enough, And Republicans At One Point Adored Her. Not long after Kagan was confirmed as Solicitor General last year, the Times remarked, "Republicans were almost as effusive as the Democrats in their praise for her." But some progressives have raised concerns about Kagan from the start, either because of a lack of evidence of her ideological stances or because she didn't use her platform as dean of Harvard Law School as a platform to criticize Bush administration legal abuse. In her Solicitor General hearings, she said she didn't believe there was a constitutional right to same-sex marriage, though she may have simply been describing existing precedent, and that she was not "morally opposed" to capital punishment. She did stand up against Don't Ask Don't Tell (until she didn't.)

Professor Lawrence Lessig, whom Kagan recruited back to Harvard Law School, recently wrote, "The part that everyone gets about Elena Kagan is brilliance and strength. The questions are about her politics and resolve. Is she a liberal, or in the language of the times, a progressive? Would she be a triangulator, or a justice fighting hard for what she believes?" His argument: that Kagan "has developed a sixth sense for the strategy of an argument. She matches that insight with a toughness that can get what she wants done. That doesn't mean triangulating. It doesn't mean 'compromise.' It means finding a way to move others to the answer you believe is right." Glenn Greenwald, among others, demanded to see the evidence. Others saw reason to believe that she was more liberal on issues of executive power and habeas corpus.

Her ambiguous record may simply come down to how she construes the role of the judiciary. Kagan's former boss at the Clinton White House Domestic Policy council said of her last year, "She doesn't approach these problems through an ideological lens. She's not a particularly political person, I don't think. She's a law professor first." Of her considerable similarities to President Obama in terms of worldview, she's been described as a consensus builder between warring factions.

Questions Have Been Raised About Her Record On Diversity. She has, at various times in her career, infiltrated boys' clubs, playing poker and smoking cigars or "impress[ing] the male clerks by joining their pickup basketball games in the court's top-floor gym," as the Times puts it. But as dean of Harvard Law school, she made 29 tenure-track hires, 23 of whom were white men, and five of whom were white women. Other than one Asian-American woman, Kagan did not hire a single professor of color in her six years as dean. (The numbers are slightly improved upon if you include non-tenure track and visiting professors, which the White House has.)

Her open opposition to Don't Ask Don't Tell in the same period will most likely be seized upon. Kagan initially barred military recruiters entirely under the Law School's policies of not allowing discriminatory employers to operate on school grounds, but relented when a Supreme Court decision threatened federal funding for the entire University. She wrote at the time, "I believe that policy is profoundly wrong - both unwise and unjust, and I look forward to the day when all our students, regardless of sexual orientation, will be able to serve and defend this country in the armed services."

Her Personal Life Has Already Been A Target. From published rumors, strongly denied, that Kagan is a lesbian, to Internet abuse about her looks (comments here are just one example), Kagan has already been subject to severe sexism. On Google Trends this morning, "Elena Kagan husband" was #4; "Elena Kagan personal life" was #6."

Fun Facts. Raised on New York's Upper West Side, Kagan's mother was a teacher, and her father was a community advocate and housing rights lawyer. She is a "literature lover who reread Jane Austen's 'Pride and Prejudice' every year." In her youth, she smoked cigarettes and sometimes cigars, and played poker. At Princeton, her circle included disgraced New York ex-governor Eliot Spitzer, and at Harvard Law and beyond, she was close to The New Yorker and CNN's Jeffrey Toobin. She has been known to be so focused on her work that she's left her car running overnight.
If confirmed, she would be the fourth New Yorker currently on the Court (and all of the female Justices would be New Yorkers) and would be the eighth Jewish Justice in the Court's history.

What You Can Expect For Her Confirmation Hearings. Here's a good rundown of the possible vote breakdown in the Senate. The Obama administration is betting that there will be few surprises, since it's only been a year and change since hearings to confirm Kagan as Solicitor General. There may be a struggle over how much of her work in the Clinton administration is protected by executive or attorney client privilege. Republicans are expected to attack her lack of judicial experience and "Ivory Tower" orientation, and possibly for opposing Don't Ask Don't Tell.

A Climb Marked by Confidence and Canniness [NYT]
Obama Selects Kagan For Supreme Court [NYT]
Myths And Falsehoods About Elena Kagan's Supreme Court Nomination [Media Matters]
The Liberal Case Against Kagan Is Overstated [Salon]
What Obama Sees In Kagan [WP]
The Ten Biggest Issues Elena Kagan Will Face [TNR]

Related: Reserved Passion: Kagan '81 [Daily Princetonian]
Potential Justice's Appeal May Be Too Bipartisan" [NYT]
A Case For Kagan [Huffington Post]
Kagan's Words May Return To Haunt Her [LAT]
Larry Lessig's Case For Kagan Is The Opposite [Glenn Greenwald/Salon]
Some Questions About Elena Kagan [Colored Demos]
The Next Harriet Miers? [The Daily Beast]

Two weeks of West Coast jet lag while keynoting three conferences means a lot of parties. At a reception, a guy named Peter told me that he read my book Call to Action a few years ago and that he used it as the basis to redo his company's shopping cart. Peter more than doubled conversions based on the advice we gave him. However, he said he had an unbelievable battle to explain and use an obvious technique: leveraging his company's point-of-action assurances into the shopping cart.

Maybe I can spare you that grief.

What Are Point-of-Action Assurances?

At the point when a visitor is ready to take action, to fill out a form, to click on a button or link, they are at a seductive moment. It's a delicate place. It's at that point they could lose confidence in their decision and not take the action you want them to take. That's why you must provide messaging to bolster trust and confidence.

Let's look at a few examples of how this can be done.

One of the earliest tests we ran over a decade ago was adding the words we value your privacy near newsletter subscriptions boxes on several clients' websites. We placed those four simple words near the e-mail form field and the button used to submit the subscription form. It often doubled the conversion rate from visitors to subscribers.

If you want to take this to another level, check out what my good friends and screenshotaholic enablers at TechSmith do on their forms with a reaffirming message from their president.

Point-of-action assurances allow you to handle the possible objections or concerns your visitors have just as they are ready to complete an action and without them having to go anywhere else on your website to look for the answer.

Take a look at the download button from Firefox as an example of adding point-of-action assurances on a graphic button. Notice how they tell people how large the file is, what version, etc.? You could do the same thing if you are asking people to download white paper docs, PDFs, or any other type of files.

Amazon used this strategy for years on its add to cart buttons. Even though they removed it, we have still used it quite successfully for clients recently. Notice how Amazon used the words you can always remove it later on the button and the use of the lock graphic and the additional words shopping with us is safe. Guaranteed.

You can also use point-of-action assurances to help retail visitors overcome their shopping fears and reduce shopping cart abandonment.

Notice the use of the lock and the Shop with Confidence messaging alongside the credit card input fields in CafePress.com's shopping cart? This point-of-action assurance helps visitors feel more secure about entering in their credit card information.

The folks from 37signals use this well-designed strategy quite effectively in order to get their visitors to provide them with credit card information to set up a free trial account for their Basecamp product.

Visitors to retailers often have other questions that should be answered as point-of-action assurances inside the cart, instead of making visitors search your website for answers to your return, shipping, or guarantee policies.

Notice how Shoeline.com spells out its policies from the shopping cart page all the way through the final checkout page? This is how it lets visitors know that all its products are guaranteed and that visitors can return products within 30 days for a refund or exchange.

So You Want More Leads, Huh?

Well, this strategy of providing point-of-action assurances is a must, then!

Keep in mind that, according to studies, a lead loses six times its effectiveness within the first hour of contacting you. So an effective strategy is to set expectations of how you handle your leads, what will happen after they fill out your form, and when and how you will respond. Take a look at what Rad-Direct.com is doing on its Web forms:

First, it sets expectations about what you can speak to a systems engineer about. Then, above and below the form, it lets you know that it will respond to all inquiries within two business hours (it also has the point-of-action assurance about respecting your privacy):

Use this simple and powerful technique of point-of-action assurances that direct marketers have been using in their work for years and watch how your visitors reward you with more actions taking place.

So far in our series on Social News Organizations (SNOs), we've looked at how SEO, social media, and mobile apps could all be used to drive and retain registered users, and collect user data for hyper-targeting ads. Well, today we consider how SNOs can use these different channels and the user data available through them to diversify their ad offers and bolster their ad revenues.

Just as SNOs rely on a variety of digital channels to acquire and retain users, they employ a variety of ad offers to generate revenues. There are several aspects to a SNOs diversified ad offer: actual media placement/real estate, enhanced ad targeting, varying ad models, and multi-tier advertisers.

Ad Placements & Social News Organizations

SNOs customize ad placement/real estate according to distribution channels and content verticals. This includes specialized ad placements for each of their sites, email notifications, and each of the content vertical mobile apps (news, sports, business, etc.).

Such ad variations allow SNOs to offer advertisers specialized and premium media placements that are actually seen by readers. For instance, mobile ads are integrated into the core user experience of each mobile apps rather than being lost to the low resolutions of a WAP site.

Ad Targeting & Social News Organizations

SNOs also leverage the user data available through each distribution/acquisition channel to better target ad campaigns and packages. First, social graph data available through social media APIs helps SNOs better understand what opportunities they can offer advertisers. This data can inform SNOs as to what kind of advertisers to approach, as well as reassure advertisers as to what kind of audience their message is actually reaching.

SNOs also leverage an additional layer of data available from mobile users to hyper-target ad placements: geo-location. By monitoring the geo-location of users as they log-in into apps, SNOs can offer advertisers an opportunity to reach users with geographically relevant message.

For instance, users that are close to a point-of-sale (POS) can be targeted with an added-value-proposition such as a time-sensitive, in-store promotion. This level of hyper-targeting, then, also offers advertisers the opportunity to deploy incentivized messages and drive actual foot-traffic to a POS.

Indeed, the mobile facet of an SNO is very much the logical extension of its social media integration. While social media provides data on users' actual interests and demographics, mobile apps reveal the locations and POSs that users actually visit.

Together, these data sets can be used to develop hyper-targeted media placements that offer advertisers low risk advertising. This helps SNOs both secure advertisers and increase the revenue potential of each ad sale.

Ad Models & Social News Organizations

SNOs will also use these data sets to effectively embrace a variety of ad models. Through varied ad model offers, SNOs can appeal to a wider base of advertisers, offer more custom ad packages, and increase advertiser confidence.

There are three general ad models available through digital channels:

• CPM cost per thousand impression
• CPC cost per click
• CPA cost per action

Many mainstream publishers prefer CPM advertising because it makes it easier to manage ad revenue projections i.e. impression packages are sold in advance. However, CPM offers advertisers little reassurance for advertisers. The ads are purchased in advance so if the audience isn't targeted, the investment is lost, and pre-paid publishers have less incentive to accurately target ads or integrate them into their user-experience.

Alternatively, some mainstream publishers render CPC ads on unsold real estate, but such ads are inefficient on two levels. They represent an opportunity cost if users don't click on them. Furthermore, because these ads tend to be targeted by content (not by social graph of geo-location), click prices remain low to secure advertisers confidence, and the publisher's revenue potential is limited.

Lastly, CPA offer advertisers the most security because they pay only for an ad when it converts into a sale. Mainstream publishers, however, are reluctant to adopt the CPA model because it leaves them assuming all the risk.

Diversifying Ad Models

The hyper-targeting potential available through social graph and mobile data offers SNOs several opportunities to bolster their ad revenues by blending each of these ad models. First, they can determine whether an alternative ad model is a calculated risk. For example, if an SNO has determined that a user is a health food enthusiast but there are currently no relevant CPM advertisers, the SNO can then render a CPC or CPA ad that pertains to healthy living in general.

Second, it provides SNOs with data that allows them to develop multi-model ad placements i.e. a blend of CPM, CPC, and CPA. Essentially, as SNOs accrue data on users and how they interact with various ad placements, SNOs are able to determine the risks associated with selling advertising based partly on impressions, partly on click, and partly on conversion. Such ad offers will help protect the interests of both SNOs and advertisers, and boost the value of SNO advertising space.

Finally, SNOs can further bolster their ad revenues by engaging multi-tiered advertisers. Essentially, the confluence of hyper-targeting and varied ad models opens up mainstream advertising to all levels of advertisers.

For example, a local, neighborhood cafe would be able to buy advertising from a national news outlet's mobile app and target only users within a certain geographic radius. Such mobile placements could be further enhanced to drive foot-traffic with incentives, such a CPA lunchtime mobile coupon.

All such ad diversification helps SNOs gain additional opportunities to generate revenue from either a click or a commission from a sale and preserve the confidence of its advertisers. This increased ad space efficiency and advertiser confidence can help SNOs increase both overall ad sales and the value of each sale.

Multiple Ad Models for Multiple Channels

SNOs leverage and blend multiple content distribution channels to acquire and retain users, so they must also leverage and blend multiple ad models to build an effective revenue stream. Just as I wouldn't buy a two dimensional print ad to be broadcast as a static image during the Super Bowl, SNOs must offer advertisers a blend of ad placements and models across each of their channels.

Since SNOs can track user behavior as they migrate from channel to channel, they are in a position to aggregate user data at a variety of levels. Through this data, SNOs can determine when (if at all) to show a specific ad for a specific product at a specific time when the user is in a specific location. This allows SNOs to bolster their ad revenue stream because targeted ad space is easier to sell and can be sold at higher premium.